User:Exodus04/Probability

This page is up to date (v1.2.2).

Probability

This page is intended to provide players with a rough idea of how many actions/clears/attempts it will take to source particular items or pets. MelvorIdle uses a system of random distribution when aquiring luck-based items - which revolves around a binomial distribution mechanism. Using this Simulation, the random distribution was analysed using a numerical method.

The following table shows how you should interpret the data:

Item Goal	Top 25% Luck	Average Luck	Bottom 25% Luck	Simulation
Volcanic Cave (Ancient Set)	χ clears to be in the top 25% luckiest	χ clears on average	χ clears to be in the bottom 25% luckiest	Simulation Output

Item Goal	Top 25% Luck	Average Luck	Bottom 25% Luck	Simulation
Volcanic Cave (Ancient Set)	χ clears to be in the top 25% luckiest	χ clears on average	χ clears to be in the bottom 25% luckiest	Simulation Output
Volcanic Cave (Ancient Set)	χ clears to be in the top 25% luckiest	χ clears on average	χ clears to be in the bottom 25% luckiest	Simulation Output
Volcanic Cave (Ancient Set)	χ clears to be in the top 25% luckiest	χ clears on average	χ clears to be in the bottom 25% luckiest	Simulation Output
Volcanic Cave (Ancient Set)	χ clears to be in the top 25% luckiest	χ clears on average	χ clears to be in the bottom 25% luckiest	Simulation Output

Melvor Idle version v1.2.2 (Released: 15th November 2023)
Combat: Attack Strength Defence Hitpoints Ranged Magic Prayer Slayer
Skills: Woodcutting Fishing Firemaking Cooking Mining Smithing Thieving Farming Fletching Crafting Runecrafting Herblore Agility Summoning Astrology Township Cartography Archaeology Alternative Magic
Other: Beginners Guide Guides Bank Combat Mastery Money Making Shop Easter Eggs Pets Golbin Raid Full Version Throne of the Herald Atlas of Discovery
Reference Tables: Items, Equipment, Experience Table, Upgrading Items, Combat Areas, Slayer Areas, Dungeons, Chest Loot Tables, Monsters, Monster Loot Tables