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Ancient Claw/Guide: Difference between revisions
Write the start of the analysis.
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The overall time is <math>131.2 * 3333 / 3600 = 121.5 \text{ hours}.</math> | The overall time is <math>131.2 * 3333 / 3600 = 121.5 \text{ hours}.</math> | ||
===Analysis=== | |||
Let's consider the post-Ship and post-Glacia builds. | |||
The difference between them is roughly 27 hours. | |||
However, if we leave the Volcano with {{ItemIcon|Sunset Rapier}}, its clear time would take longer, making the grind to the full {{ItemIcon|(G) Ancient Helmet|ancient}} set longer. | |||
The question is then if the difference between the {{ItemIcon|Sunset Rapier|rapier}} and the {{ItemIcon|Ancient Claw|claw}} Volcanic grinds is bigger than 27 hours. | |||
Essentially, we compare two strategies: | |||
* Rapier > Claw > Volcano, | |||
* Rapier > Volcano > Claw. | |||
We know the length of "Raper > Claw" and "Volcano > Claw" through the post-Ship and post-Glacia builds, but we need the data on "Rapier > Volcano" and "Claw > Volcano". | |||
We take this data from [[Volcanic Cave/Guide#Weapon choice]]. | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|- | |||
! Item | |||
! Clears per hour | |||
|- | |||
| {{ItemIcon|Sunset Rapier}} | |||
| 8.49 | |||
|- | |||
| {{ItemIcon|Ancient Claw}} | |||
| 9.23 | |||
|} | |||
The goal of clearing the {{ZoneIcon|Volcanic Cave}} is to get the {{ItemIcon|(G) Ancient Helmet|ancient}} set. | |||
Let's consider the simplified case when we see all four pieces of the set as a single entity with the probability of 2/241 + 4/723 = 10/723, and we need to get this entity four times. | |||
The described task is identical to a [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernoulli_trial Bernoulli trial] with the probability of success being 10/723. | |||
By using a Bernoulli calculator such as [https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx this one], entering probability of success on a single trial (10/723), number of trials, and number of successes (4), we tweak the number of trials until the cumulative probability <math>P(X \geq x)</math> that number of successes is at least equal to desired is as large as we want. For this trial, the cumulative threshold was set to 80%. | |||
The number of trials that gave this probability is 400, meaning that it will take more than 400 clears of {{ZoneIcon|Volcanic Cave}} to get a full set of Ancient armor. | |||
The results are: | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|- | |||
! Item | |||
! Clears per hour | |||
! Volcanic timing | |||
|- | |||
| {{ItemIcon|Sunset Rapier}} | |||
| 8.49 | |||
| 47.1h | |||
|- | |||
| {{ItemIcon|Ancient Claw}} | |||
| 9.23 | |||
| 43.4h | |||
|} | |||
However, the initial simplification of pooling four items into one doesn't account for repeat drops, which is a large part of the 4-item group. The solution to this problem is hardly analytical and usually done by simulation. When the simulation is programmed and run, the results will be on this page. The current anecdotal number is 600. | |||
Without the food, the results are the following. | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|- | |||
! Item | |||
! Clears per hour | |||
! Volcanic timing | |||
|- | |||
| {{ItemIcon|Sunset Rapier}} | |||
| 8.49 | |||
| 70.7h | |||
|- | |||
| {{ItemIcon|Ancient Claw}} | |||
| 9.23 | |||
| 65h | |||
|} | |||
As the food preparation is important to calculate the adjusted clear time, no definite resolution is given on the question on when to farm the claw. | |||